The Almanac method · 2026
Schedule Luck
What if you played everyone every week? Compare your actual results with all eleven other teams to see how much the schedule helped or hurt.
Verified archive through Week 9. Showing Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
This analysis uses completed, archived regular season results. Newer live results are included after they enter the verified archive.
| Manager | Actual W / L / T | All play W / L / T | Expected win credit | Actual win credit | Schedule advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Van Horn | 7 / 2 / 0 | 70 / 29 / 0 | 6.36 | 7.00 | +0.64 |
| Rob Lazerson | 6 / 3 / 0 | 68 / 31 / 0 | 6.18 | 6.00 | -0.18 |
| Sean Laird | 6 / 3 / 0 | 66 / 33 / 0 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| Stephen Spencer | 5 / 4 / 0 | 61 / 38 / 0 | 5.55 | 5.00 | -0.55 |
| Evan Seacat | 6 / 3 / 0 | 59 / 40 / 0 | 5.36 | 6.00 | +0.64 |
| Mike Aguanno | 6 / 3 / 0 | 53 / 46 / 0 | 4.82 | 6.00 | +1.18 |
| Alex Buell | 5 / 4 / 0 | 50 / 49 / 0 | 4.55 | 5.00 | +0.45 |
| Chris Scurry | 5 / 4 / 0 | 43 / 56 / 0 | 3.91 | 5.00 | +1.09 |
| Jack Decker | 2 / 7 / 0 | 38 / 61 / 0 | 3.45 | 2.00 | -1.45 |
| Tom Burkett | 2 / 7 / 0 | 32 / 67 / 0 | 2.91 | 2.00 | -0.91 |
| Pavel Kogan | 2 / 7 / 0 | 30 / 69 / 0 | 2.73 | 2.00 | -0.73 |
| Larry Noel | 2 / 7 / 0 | 24 / 75 / 0 | 2.18 | 2.00 | -0.18 |
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Van Horn | 0 / 11 / 073.20 pts · L | 11 / 0 / 0137.06 pts · W | 7 / 4 / 098.49 pts · W | 11 / 0 / 0140.15 pts · W | 8 / 3 / 0109.54 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 079.47 pts · L | 11 / 0 / 0122.93 pts · W | 10 / 1 / 0134.60 pts · W | 9 / 2 / 0106.65 pts · W |
| Rob Lazerson | 5 / 6 / 0101.96 pts · L | 9 / 2 / 0105.22 pts · W | 9 / 2 / 0119.06 pts · W | 2 / 9 / 081.27 pts · L | 9 / 2 / 0124.15 pts · W | 7 / 4 / 091.30 pts · W | 8 / 3 / 0104.12 pts · W | 11 / 0 / 0153.81 pts · W | 8 / 3 / 0100.76 pts · L |
| Sean Laird | 11 / 0 / 0130.91 pts · W | 10 / 1 / 0108.43 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 086.94 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 0103.28 pts · L | 10 / 1 / 0126.84 pts · W | 10 / 1 / 098.99 pts · W | 0 / 11 / 072.61 pts · L | 6 / 5 / 098.68 pts · W | 11 / 0 / 0150.76 pts · W |
| Stephen Spencer | 9 / 2 / 0114.70 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 071.90 pts · L | 10 / 1 / 0121.80 pts · W | 6 / 5 / 0103.34 pts · W | 11 / 0 / 0138.74 pts · W | 9 / 2 / 097.04 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 086.62 pts · L | 7 / 4 / 0101.95 pts · L | 3 / 8 / 066.48 pts · L |
| Evan Seacat | 1 / 10 / 078.31 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 086.44 pts · L | 11 / 0 / 0128.58 pts · W | 7 / 4 / 0103.42 pts · W | 7 / 4 / 0109.11 pts · W | 11 / 0 / 0107.86 pts · W | 5 / 6 / 092.12 pts · W | 2 / 9 / 064.26 pts · L | 10 / 1 / 0115.53 pts · W |
| Mike Aguanno | 6 / 5 / 0106.06 pts · W | 6 / 5 / 089.65 pts · W | 6 / 5 / 097.64 pts · W | 4 / 7 / 090.18 pts · W | 6 / 5 / 0107.33 pts · L | 6 / 5 / 085.32 pts · W | 9 / 2 / 0118.65 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 096.20 pts · W | 5 / 6 / 071.97 pts · L |
| Alex Buell | 2 / 9 / 080.41 pts · L | 8 / 3 / 0105.03 pts · L | 8 / 3 / 0118.89 pts · W | 1 / 10 / 080.52 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 0105.40 pts · W | 1 / 10 / 069.85 pts · L | 10 / 1 / 0121.83 pts · W | 9 / 2 / 0113.23 pts · W | 6 / 5 / 087.54 pts · W |
| Chris Scurry | 8 / 3 / 0112.27 pts · W | 2 / 9 / 068.81 pts · W | 1 / 10 / 074.92 pts · L | 10 / 1 / 0122.42 pts · W | 0 / 11 / 068.45 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 085.03 pts · L | 7 / 4 / 099.87 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 075.63 pts · L | 7 / 4 / 095.37 pts · W |
| Jack Decker | 7 / 4 / 0107.87 pts · L | 7 / 4 / 097.67 pts · W | 2 / 9 / 085.73 pts · L | 3 / 8 / 086.01 pts · L | 4 / 7 / 0102.01 pts · L | 4 / 7 / 084.20 pts · L | 6 / 5 / 099.04 pts · W | 4 / 7 / 092.61 pts · L | 1 / 10 / 060.76 pts · L |
| Tom Burkett | 4 / 7 / 098.16 pts · W | 0 / 11 / 054.07 pts · L | 5 / 6 / 097.19 pts · L | 8 / 3 / 0106.21 pts · L | 2 / 9 / 094.25 pts · L | 8 / 3 / 092.74 pts · L | 1 / 10 / 081.07 pts · L | 0 / 11 / 048.23 pts · L | 4 / 7 / 068.91 pts · W |
| Pavel Kogan | 3 / 8 / 097.12 pts · W | 4 / 7 / 079.77 pts · L | 4 / 7 / 093.66 pts · L | 9 / 2 / 0114.68 pts · W | 3 / 8 / 099.14 pts · L | 0 / 11 / 059.88 pts · L | 4 / 7 / 088.97 pts · L | 1 / 10 / 051.44 pts · L | 2 / 9 / 064.33 pts · L |
| Larry Noel | 10 / 1 / 0125.96 pts · L | 1 / 10 / 068.48 pts · L | 0 / 11 / 063.54 pts · L | 0 / 11 / 070.40 pts · L | 1 / 10 / 079.17 pts · L | 2 / 9 / 075.88 pts · W | 2 / 9 / 086.15 pts · L | 8 / 3 / 0112.54 pts · W | 0 / 11 / 045.08 pts · L |
Method and source
The 2024 Almanac explains all play and schedule luck on pages 13 and 14. Each week, your score is compared with every other team. Expected win credit equals (all play wins + half of all play ties) divided by 11, summed across the included weeks. Actual win credit equals actual wins plus half of actual ties.
Schedule advantage is actual credit minus expected credit. Positive means more wins than the field comparison suggests; negative means fewer. This measures scheduling effects, not injuries, manager skill or future win probability. Ties count as half a win for both sides in this website calculation.
This is a new calculation from verified 2026 Sleeper scores, not a transcription of the Almanac’s 2021 example. Postseason, simulated schedules and official playoff seeding are outside this analysis. Expected win credit is not a simulated expected finishing position.
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